The Climate Impact of Energy

Around 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions generated each year by human activity derive from fossil fuels. More than half of that amount — or around one-third of total greenhouse gas emissions — stems from oil and gas; the remainder comes from coal.

The consensus in the scientific community, especially the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is that greenhouse gas emissions have an impact on climate and that the world must work together to limit the resultant temperature increase to 2°C to 2100.

The oil and gas industry has a direct stake in the problem and possible solutions for curbing global emissions related to:

• Oil and gas production and refining and marketing facilities, which account for an average 15% of all hydrocarbon-related carbon dioxide equivalent emissions.
• The use of petroleum products as heating or automotive fuel by customers, accounting for an average 85% of all hydrocarbon-related carbon dioxide equivalent emissions.

Balancing Higher Energy Demand with Tackling Climate Change

The Energy Outlook for 2030

According to our estimates, fossil energies — oil, natural gas and coal — accounted for around 81% of the world’s energy supply in 2010. This is expected to be around 75% still in 2030. A more detailed forward-looking analysis highlights the following trends.

Oil

Although our estimates show that the environment will remain stable overall, global oil production is expected to plateau at about 95 million barrels per day around 2020-2025, roughly 10% higher than today.

In 2030, oil will meet some 30% of energy demand, down from around 33% in 2010. The plateau will not be caused by scarcity — resources are still abundant — but by the following factors:

• The natural decline of many fields currently in production.
• The concentration of resources in countries that do not want to increase their output in the short term.
• Problems offsetting the gradual decline of certain oil fields outside regions such as the Middle East. The most accessible oil and gas in geopolitical and technical terms have already been produced and new high-tech projects are harder to implement.

That means that global production capacity will be limited.

Nonetheless, there are no real substitutes for oil today in a certain number of applications, especially transportation and petrochemicals.

Oil, Driving Growth

Natural Gas

We anticipate that natural gas will account for around 24% of the global energy mix in 2030, versus 21% in 2010. Supply will be sufficient to meet demand, primarily for power generation. Markets are increasingly recognizing the advantages of this source of energy: natural gas emits fewer greenhouse gases and virtually no sulfur compounds during combustion, compared with coal and petroleum products.

That’s why it is an attractive option for power generation, especially from an environmental standpoint. Natural gas emits half as much carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour generated as coal. In addition, its flexibility makes it suitable to back up intermittent energies such as wind power.

So-called conventional gas fields close to consumer regions were developed first. Today, they are gradually being replaced by:

• “Local” unconventional gas, such as shale gas, which is more complicated to extract.
• Imports of conventional gas produced far from consumer regions and piped or shipped in the form of liquefied natural gas.

Natural Gas, a Resource of the Future

Coal

With plentiful, well-distributed, affordable reserves, coal currently fuels around 50% of world power generation — more than natural gas and nuclear power combined. Over the coming decades, this is expected to decline slightly, as lower-carbon energies increase their share. Nonetheless, coal will still be a major component of the energy mix in 2030, accounting for around 22%, compared with 26% in 2010, according to our projections. The development of carbon capture and storage technologies could boost the use of this energy source.

Coal, Still Considerable Potential

Nuclear Power and Renewable Energies

Other forms of primary energy — nuclear power, hydroelectricity, biomass and alternative energies such as solar, wind, geothermal and marine energy — will grow steadily, reaching around 25% of energy supply in 2030. Although the growth of alternative renewable energies is expected to be particularly rapid, in 20 years’ time they are still expected to represent only a modest share of the energy mix: around 4% of the total in 2030, compared with 1% in 2010.

The transition to a new, more diversified energy model is under way , but will take time.

Partner Energies, Our Commitment and Our Objectives