First, I want to point out that peak oil does not spell the end of oil, but designates the production peak that will precede a gradual decline in output over several decades. Oil production could top out at around 100 to 110 million barrels a day by 2020-2030. It’s 82 million barrels today, which leaves some room for growth.

 

Our best current estimate is that proved oil reserves⁽¹⁾ will last about forty years. I stress “proved,” since new possibilities could always open up through exploration or improved technology. We could tap new oil-producing regions or develop resources considered to be non-conventional just a few years ago, like deepwater crude oil in Angola and extra-heavy crude oil in Venezuela. The Sincor field, for example, has a forecast life of 35 years and production capacity of 200,000 barrels a day. Put another way, that equates to over 10% of France’s daily oil consumption. Total is interested in similar projects in Canada, which

will also provide a growth engine for production.

Although it will become increasingly difficult to replace reserves at the same rate as output declines from older fields, that doesn’t spell the end for oil and gas. Natural gas, which covered 21% of world primary energy consumption in 2002, is expected to take up the slack. Proved reserves of natural gas represent a good 60 years of consumption. Already one of the top three global producers of liquefied natural gas, we’re constantly expanding our positions across the gas chain, with the result that gas will account for as much of our production as oil in around fifteen years’ time.

 

The first and most logical response is to shift demand. This brings us back to the concept of energy efficiency: better insulated housing, vehicles that use less fuel, more efficient manufacturing processes, and more responsible individual behavior. Anyone and everyone who influences the end use of energy—ordinary people, public authorities, infrastructure developers, carmakers—has to work together to find better solutions. The second response is alternative energies. If you look at power generation, very few power plants are now fueled with heavy fuel. They are also using nuclear energy and, increasingly, natural gas thanks to new combined cycle technologies. And they still use coal, in ever greater amounts. With a proved reserve life of 200 years, coal accounted for 23% of world primary energy consumption in 2002.

In addition to hydrocarbons and nuclear power, there are other solutions in the form of renewable energy. We are also exploring onshore and offshore wind turbines, whose technology has made great strides in the last 20 years. In 2005, we were selected by the French Industry Ministry to build a large onshore wind farm in the Aveyron region in southern France. We are also positioning ourselves in photovoltaics, which generates less power, but is immediately available to end users and well suited to decentralized rural electrification. With 20 years of experience in the downstream end of the photovoltaic chain, through our Total Energie subsidiary, renamed Tenesol in 2005, we recently invested upstream with an interest in Photovoltech, which manufactures photovoltaic cells in Belgium.

 

There are alternative solutions for power generation. But what about transportation?

Transportation is the one area where it will be hardest to replace oil, which is easy to for vehicles to carry and consume as needed. Other, more expensive solutions are emerging, which could benefit from appropriate government incentives. For example, compressed natural gas is used in certain countries. And Total is taking part in current research on transforming natural gas and even coal into liquid synfuel.

But we already have a more immediate response, which is to make automotive fuel from biomass, as we are already doing in France to a significant degree. We blend nearly 800,000 metric tons of biofuels in our automotive fuels in Europe. For instance, ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE), an ethanol derivative obtained from beets or grain, is added to gasoline, while vegetable oil methyl ester (VOME), produced from rapeseed and sunflower seed, is added to diesel fuel. Total produces all of France’s ETBE. When you buy gasoline or diesel from Total in France, there’s a good chance that it contains biomass. But biomass can never completely replace oil, because cultivating the necessary crops would take up an inordinate amount of farmland, which today is essentially used to grow food. There’s no question of making the planet’s inhabitants go hungry just so they can ride around in cars.

So, are you optimistic about the future?

Yes. And in this case optimism goes hand in hand with realism. There is no panacea for satisfying growing demand. We’ll have to rely on a mix of complementary energies, each used in the application where it is most appropriate, while at the same time striving to eliminate the wasteful habits developed in the years of cheap, abundant energy. The future of energy will be multifaceted. The changes will not spell the end of the planet’s development or even ours, but offers exciting opportunities that we’re already addressing every day.